San Jose Barracuda at San Diego Gulls

Pechanga Arena San Diego · San Diego, CA

San Jose Barracuda

6:2

Final

San Diego Gulls

The sheet

SJSDSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

41%59%

xG: 2.12.6
High danger: 25
Chances: 910
Shots: 2621

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

SD above the lineSJ belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% SD.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

26Shots on goal21

9Scoring chances10

2High-danger chances5

2.13Expected goals2.56

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	11–6	2–2	0–0	0.6–0.5
2nd	7–6	3–4	2–2	0.9–0.8
3rd	8–9	4–4	0–3	0.6–1.2

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
SD	3	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	20:00	+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Calle Clang

Shots faced: 25
Saves: 20
Allowed: 5
xGA: 1.99
GSAx: -3.01

Georgii Romanov

Shots faced: 21
Saves: 19
Allowed: 2
xGA: 2.56
GSAx: +0.56

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 0:49Penalty
1st 1:46Olen Zellweger (0–1)5v4 · low · 54 ft · beat Georgii Romanov
1st 9:42Ethan Cardwell (1–1)medium · 6 ft · beat Calle Clang
1st 12:21Penalty
1st 16:00Penalty
1st 19:53Nathan Todd (2–1)low · 55 ft · beat Calle Clang
2nd 4:02Shakir Mukhamadullin (3–1)low · 34 ft · beat Calle Clang
2nd 4:34Penalty
2nd 8:05Penalty
2nd 11:40Penalty
2nd 14:24Kyle Rau (4–1)grade A · rebound · 9 ft · beat Calle Clang
2nd 15:25Penalty
2nd 15:25Penalty
3rd 6:52Jacob Peterson (5–1)low · 30 ft · beat Calle Clang
3rd 8:46Penalty
3rd 10:55Ben King (5–2)grade A · rebound · 10 ft · beat Georgii Romanov
3rd 17:15Jacob Peterson (6–2)empty net · medium · 21 ft
3rd 17:28Penalty
3rd 17:28Penalty
3rd 17:58Penalty