San Jose Barracuda at Coachella Valley Firebirds

Acrisure Arena · Palm Desert, CA

San Jose Barracuda

0:4

Final

Coachella Valley Firebirds

The sheet

SJCVSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

28%72%

xG: 2.63.3
High danger: 37
Chances: 1313
Shots: 2532

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

CV above the lineSJ belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% CV.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

25Shots on goal32

13Scoring chances13

3High-danger chances7

2.55Expected goals3.31

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	6–13	3–5	1–4	0.6–1.4
2nd	10–10	5–5	1–2	1.1–1.1
3rd	9–9	5–3	1–1	0.8–0.8

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
SJ	2	12:08 of the 3rd	7:52	7:52	+0.028 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Magnus Chrona

Shots faced: 32
Saves: 28
Allowed: 4
xGA: 3.31
GSAx: -0.69

Chris Driedger

Shots faced: 25
Saves: 25
Allowed: 0
xGA: 2.55
GSAx: +2.55

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 15:24Kole Lind (0–1)high · 8 ft · beat Magnus Chrona
1st 15:40Penalty
1st 15:40Penalty
2nd 5:17Penalty
2nd 5:17Penalty
2nd 9:03Penalty
3rd 1:25Max McCormick (0–2)high · 9 ft · beat Magnus Chrona
3rd 5:04Penalty
3rd 10:02Penalty
3rd 16:18Penalty
3rd 17:15Ryan Winterton (0–3)empty net · low · 46 ft · beat Magnus Chrona
3rd 17:37Penalty
3rd 17:37Penalty
3rd 17:37Penalty
3rd 17:37Penalty
3rd 17:37Penalty
3rd 17:37Penalty
3rd 17:37Marian Studenic (0–4)empty net · low · 48 ft · beat Magnus Chrona