Bridgeport Islanders at Providence Bruins

Amica Mutual Pavilion · Providence, RI

Bridgeport Islanders

3:2

Final

Providence Bruins

The sheet

BRIPROSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

30%70%

xG: 2.23.4
High danger: 45
Chances: 714
Shots: 2728

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

PRO above the lineBRI belowDots are goals. Pre-game 54% PRO.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

27Shots on goal28

7Scoring chances14

4High-danger chances5

2.22Expected goals3.41

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	10–9	4–6	1–1	0.8–1.0
2nd	7–10	1–4	1–0	0.5–1.0
3rd	10–9	2–4	2–4	0.9–1.3

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
PRO	1	19:25 of the 3rd	0:35	0:35	+0.011 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Ken Appleby

Shots faced: 28
Saves: 26
Allowed: 2
xGA: 3.41
GSAx: +1.41

Brandon Bussi

Shots faced: 27
Saves: 24
Allowed: 3
xGA: 2.22
GSAx: -0.78

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 2:38Matthew Maggio (1–0)high · 12 ft · beat Brandon Bussi
1st 11:36Penalty
1st 14:35Penalty
1st 16:57Penalty
1st 16:57Otto Koivula (2–0)medium · 15 ft · beat Brandon Bussi
1st 18:48Penalty
2nd 13:48Penalty
2nd 17:03Penalty
3rd 7:49Marc McLaughlin (2–1)grade A · rebound · 23 ft · beat Ken Appleby
3rd 8:09Penalty
3rd 8:19Penalty
3rd 10:22Penalty
3rd 13:15Penalty
3rd 13:15Penalty
3rd 14:19Justin Brazeau (2–2)grade A · 12 ft · beat Ken Appleby
3rd 19:25Cole Bardreau (3–2)low · 14 ft · beat Brandon Bussi