AHLDashboard
‹ Friday, February 16

Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins at Rochester Americans

Blue Cross Arena · Rochester, NY

Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins
3:5
Final
Rochester Americans

The sheet

WBSROCSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
66%34%
xG
3.62.7
High danger
42
Chances
109
Shots
4428

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

0123P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
ROC above the lineWBS belowDots are goals. Pre-game 52% ROC.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

44Shots on goal28
10Scoring chances9
4High-danger chances2
3.57Expected goals2.69

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st16–85–33–11.9–1.0
2nd16–144–41–11.1–1.3
3rd12–61–20–00.5–0.5

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

WBS−10:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
WBS116:56 of the 3rd3:043:04+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Devon Levi
Shots faced
44
Saves
41
Allowed
3
xGA
3.57
GSAx
+0.57
Magnus Hellberg
Shots faced
28
Saves
23
Allowed
5
xGA
2.69
GSAx
-2.31

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 3:09Michael Mersch (0–1)medium · 11 ft · beat Magnus Hellberg
  • 1st 6:28Penalty
  • 1st 8:12Penalty
  • 1st 9:25Penalty
  • 1st 18:56Ryan Shea (1–1)low · 29 ft · beat Devon Levi
  • 1st 19:27Radim Zohorna (2–1)low · 21 ft · beat Devon Levi
  • 2nd 1:05Penalty
  • 2nd 8:46Michael Mersch (2–2)medium · 35 ft · beat Magnus Hellberg
  • 2nd 9:04Penalty
  • 2nd 15:09Penalty
  • 2nd 17:47Tyson Kozak (2–3)low · 25 ft · beat Magnus Hellberg
  • 3rd 8:21Jiří Kulich (2–4)medium · 28 ft · beat Magnus Hellberg
  • 3rd 10:12Ty Smith (3–4)low · 58 ft · beat Devon Levi
  • 3rd 12:04Penalty
  • 3rd 18:43Linus Weissbach (3–5)empty net · medium · 13 ft · beat Magnus Hellberg