AHLDashboard
‹ Friday, February 16

Iowa Wild at Texas Stars

H-E-B Center at Cedar Park · Cedar Park, TX

Iowa Wild
4:6
Final
Texas Stars

The sheet

IATEXSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
68%32%
xG
3.42.5
High danger
53
Chances
115
Shots
3730

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

0123P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
TEX above the lineIA belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% TEX.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

37Shots on goal30
11Scoring chances5
5High-danger chances3
3.44Expected goals2.52

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st8–92–10–00.5–0.6
2nd9–143–31–30.8–1.3
3rd20–76–14–02.2–0.6

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

IA−2−10:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
IA212:08 of the 3rd7:524:27+0.028 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Matthew Murray
Shots faced
37
Saves
33
Allowed
4
xGA
3.44
GSAx
-0.56
Jesper Wallstedt
Shots faced
30
Saves
24
Allowed
6
xGA
2.51
GSAx
-3.49

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 19:50Penalty
  • 2nd 0:34Kyle McDonald (0–1)5v4 · high · 18 ft · beat Jesper Wallstedt
  • 2nd 8:10Mavrik Bourque (0–2)low · 33 ft · beat Jesper Wallstedt
  • 2nd 9:24Derrick Pouliot (0–3)low · 45 ft · beat Jesper Wallstedt
  • 2nd 13:24Penalty
  • 2nd 17:18Steven Fogarty (1–3)medium · 16 ft · beat Matthew Murray
  • 2nd 19:33Penalty
  • 3rd 6:03Sammy Walker (2–3)low · 34 ft · beat Matthew Murray
  • 3rd 8:39Matěj Blümel (2–4)low · 37 ft · beat Jesper Wallstedt
  • 3rd 13:03Penalty
  • 3rd 13:31Adam Beckman (3–4)5v4 · grade A · rebound · 30 ft · beat Matthew Murray
  • 3rd 15:36Adam Beckman (4–4)high · rebound · 32 ft · beat Matthew Murray
  • 3rd 16:00Derrick Pouliot (4–5)low · 36 ft · beat Jesper Wallstedt
  • 3rd 19:32Fredrik Karlström (4–6)empty net · low · 47 ft · beat Jesper Wallstedt