Ontario Reign at Tucson Roadrunners

Tucson Convention Center Arena · Tucson, AZ

Ontario Reign

8:1

Final

Tucson Roadrunners

The sheet

ONTTUCSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

88%12%

xG: 2.31.4
High danger: 20
Chances: 104
Shots: 2824

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

TUC above the lineONT belowDots are goals. Pre-game 52% TUC.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

28Shots on goal24

10Scoring chances4

2High-danger chances0

2.35Expected goals1.36

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	16–5	5–2	1–0	1.2–0.4
2nd	6–16	4–2	1–0	0.7–0.9
3rd	6–3	1–0	0–0	0.4–0.1

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
TUC	6	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	20:00	+0.001 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Erik Portillo

Shots faced: 24
Saves: 23
Allowed: 1
xGA: 1.36
GSAx: +0.36

Dylan Wells

Shots faced: 22
Saves: 16
Allowed: 6
xGA: 1.94
GSAx: -4.06

Jared Moe

Shots faced: 6
Saves: 4
Allowed: 2
xGA: 0.40
GSAx: -1.60

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 2:45Francesco Pinelli (1–0)medium · 18 ft · beat Dylan Wells
1st 7:50Steven Santini (2–0)low · 66 ft · beat Dylan Wells
1st 9:57Penalty
1st 17:14Samuel Fagemo (3–0)low · 26 ft · beat Dylan Wells
1st 17:43Steven Santini (4–0)low · 52 ft · beat Dylan Wells
2nd 0:43Akil Thomas (5–0)medium · 30 ft · beat Dylan Wells
2nd 7:53Penalty
2nd 15:47Penalty
2nd 16:43Tyler Madden (6–0)4v5 · grade A · 9 ft · beat Dylan Wells
2nd 18:21Penalty
2nd 18:21Penalty
2nd 18:21Penalty
2nd 18:21Penalty
3rd 2:41Steven Santini (7–0)5v4 · low · 58 ft · beat Jared Moe
3rd 6:37Josh Doan (7–1)low · 32 ft · beat Erik Portillo
3rd 11:21Wyatte Wylie (8–1)low · 55 ft · beat Jared Moe
3rd 12:41Penalty