AHLDashboard
‹ Saturday, February 17

Springfield Thunderbirds at Charlotte Checkers

Bojangles Coliseum · Charlotte, NC

Springfield Thunderbirds
2:1
Final / OT
Charlotte Checkers

The sheet

SPRCLTSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
37%63%
xG
2.13.4
High danger
23
Chances
711
Shots
2538

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

0123P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
CLT above the lineSPR belowDots are goals. Pre-game 54% CLT.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

25Shots on goal38
7Scoring chances11
2High-danger chances3
2.08Expected goals3.42

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st9–123–41–11.0–1.0
2nd6–101–21–10.4–0.9
3rd8–102–40–00.5–0.8
OT2–61–10–10.2–0.7

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

CLT0:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
CLT116:56 of the 3rd3:040:39+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Shots faced
38
Saves
37
Allowed
1
xGA
3.42
GSAx
+2.42
Shots faced
25
Saves
23
Allowed
2
xGA
2.08
GSAx
+0.08

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 15:46Penalty
  • 2nd 0:21Penalty
  • 2nd 2:04Hugh McGing (1–0)5v4 · high · 9 ft · beat Evan Cormier
  • 3rd 2:17Penalty
  • 3rd 8:05Penalty
  • 3rd 8:05Penalty
  • 3rd 17:35Lucas Carlsson (1–1)medium · 13 ft · beat Colten Ellis
  • 3rd 18:32Penalty
  • OT 3:19Zachary Bolduc (2–1)medium · 9 ft · beat Evan Cormier