Hershey Bears at Toronto Marlies

Coca-Cola Coliseum · Toronto, ON

Hershey Bears

3:2

Final / OT

Toronto Marlies

The sheet

HERTORSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

85%15%

xG: 2.41.6
High danger: 30
Chances: 85
Shots: 2522

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

TOR above the lineHER belowDots are goals. Pre-game 54% TOR.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

25Shots on goal22

8Scoring chances5

3High-danger chances0

2.35Expected goals1.62

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	8–6	2–1	1–0	0.5–0.4
2nd	6–5	2–2	0–0	0.6–0.4
3rd	9–9	3–1	1–0	0.7–0.6
OT	2–2	1–1	1–0	0.6–0.2

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
TOR	2	12:08 of the 3rd	7:52	0:13	+0.028 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Luke Cavallin

Shots faced: 25
Saves: 22
Allowed: 3
xGA: 2.35
GSAx: -0.65

Hunter Shepard

Shots faced: 22
Saves: 20
Allowed: 2
xGA: 1.62
GSAx: -0.38

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 3:51Penalty
1st 18:17Penalty
2nd 6:51Penalty
2nd 9:30Matt Strome (1–0)medium · 34 ft · beat Luke Cavallin
2nd 10:32Penalty
2nd 11:47Penalty
2nd 15:24Penalty
2nd 17:43Penalty
3rd 0:21Penalty
3rd 1:17Alex Limoges (2–0)5v4 · medium · 27 ft · beat Luke Cavallin
3rd 7:49Penalty
3rd 12:21Joseph Blandisi (2–1)low · 25 ft · beat Hunter Shepard
3rd 13:47Dylan Gambrell (2–2)low · 59 ft · beat Hunter Shepard
OT 3:14Garrett Roe (3–2)grade A · 15 ft · beat Luke Cavallin