Belleville Senators at Utica Comets

Adirondack Bank Center · Utica, NY

Belleville Senators

3:2

Final

Utica Comets

The sheet

BELUTCSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

65%35%

xG: 2.62.6
High danger: 41
Chances: 89
Shots: 2629

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

UTC above the lineBEL belowDots are goals. Pre-game 54% UTC.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

26Shots on goal29

8Scoring chances9

4High-danger chances1

2.60Expected goals2.57

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	6–10	1–3	0–1	0.4–1.0
2nd	10–10	3–3	1–0	0.9–0.8
3rd	10–9	4–3	3–0	1.3–0.7

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
UTC	2	12:08 of the 3rd	7:52	4:10	+0.028 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Mads Søgaard

Shots faced: 29
Saves: 27
Allowed: 2
xGA: 2.57
GSAx: +0.57

Isaac Poulter

Shots faced: 26
Saves: 23
Allowed: 3
xGA: 2.60
GSAx: -0.40

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 11:03Penalty
1st 11:03Penalty
2nd 1:51Penalty
2nd 2:09Penalty
2nd 10:19Brian Halonen (0–1)medium · 26 ft · beat Mads Søgaard
2nd 14:05Penalty
2nd 15:53Penalty
2nd 16:34Egor Sokolov (1–1)5v4 · high · 11 ft · beat Isaac Poulter
2nd 17:21Penalty
2nd 17:59Penalty
2nd 19:17Penalty
3rd 3:39Angus Crookshank (2–1)low · 55 ft · beat Isaac Poulter
3rd 4:15Zack Ostapchuk (3–1)grade A · rebound · 11 ft · beat Isaac Poulter
3rd 13:14Brian Halonen (3–2)low · 28 ft · beat Mads Søgaard
3rd 13:41Penalty
3rd 15:44Penalty