Cleveland Monsters at Chicago Wolves

Allstate Arena · Rosemont, IL

Cleveland Monsters

3:4

Final / SO

Chicago Wolves

The sheet

CLECHISolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

49%51%

xG: 2.62.9
High danger: 42
Chances: 88
Shots: 3242

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

CHI above the lineCLE belowDots are goals. Pre-game 52% CHI.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

32Shots on goal42

8Scoring chances8

4High-danger chances2

2.57Expected goals2.92

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	8–17	2–4	1–1	0.6–1.2
2nd	10–9	3–2	1–1	0.8–0.8
3rd	13–12	3–2	2–0	1.1–0.7
OT	1–4	0–0	0–0	0.0–0.2

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
CLE	2	12:41 of the 3rd	7:19	0:07	+0.028 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Pavel Cajan

Shots faced: 42
Saves: 39
Allowed: 3
xGA: 2.92
GSAx: -0.08

Adam Scheel

Shots faced: 32
Saves: 29
Allowed: 3
xGA: 2.57
GSAx: -0.43

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 1:33Penalty
1st 10:05Penalty
1st 11:04Rocco Grimaldi (0–1)4v5 · low · 32 ft · beat Pavel Cajan
1st 11:53Hunter McKown (1–1)5v4 · high · 42 ft · beat Adam Scheel
1st 13:14Penalty
2nd 1:29Penalty
2nd 3:09Penalty
2nd 3:09Penalty
2nd 17:55Penalty
2nd 18:10Penalty
3rd 11:39Cavan Fitzgerald (1–2)low · 61 ft · beat Pavel Cajan
3rd 12:41Rocco Grimaldi (1–3)low · 33 ft · beat Pavel Cajan
3rd 12:48Trey Fix-Wolansky (2–3)grade A · rebound · 12 ft · beat Adam Scheel
3rd 14:34Corson Ceulemans (3–3)low · 61 ft · beat Adam Scheel
OT 1:01Penalty