Ontario Reign at Tucson Roadrunners

Tucson Convention Center Arena · Tucson, AZ

Ontario Reign

2:3

Final

Tucson Roadrunners

The sheet

ONTTUCSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

43%57%

xG: 3.53.6
High danger: 67
Chances: 1118
Shots: 3832

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

TUC above the lineONT belowDots are goals. Pre-game 52% TUC.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

38Shots on goal32

11Scoring chances18

6High-danger chances7

3.50Expected goals3.57

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	10–15	4–8	3–1	1.0–1.6
2nd	13–11	2–9	1–5	1.1–1.7
3rd	15–6	5–1	2–1	1.4–0.3

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
ONT	3	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	18:36	+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Dylan Wells

Shots faced: 38
Saves: 36
Allowed: 2
xGA: 3.50
GSAx: +1.50

Aaron Dell

Shots faced: 32
Saves: 29
Allowed: 3
xGA: 3.57
GSAx: +0.57

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 5:48Penalty
1st 7:26John Leonard (0–1)5v4 · medium · rebound · 48 ft · beat Aaron Dell
1st 9:13Penalty
1st 16:48Penalty
1st 19:32Penalty
2nd 0:50Josh Doan (0–2)5v4 · high · 27 ft · beat Aaron Dell
2nd 4:04Penalty
2nd 4:04Penalty
2nd 4:04Penalty
2nd 17:29Nate Smith (0–3)medium · 22 ft · beat Aaron Dell
2nd 20:00Penalty
2nd 20:00Penalty
3rd 0:39Penalty
3rd 12:08Penalty
3rd 12:39Penalty
3rd 14:17Penalty
3rd 14:30Samuel Fagemo (1–3)5v4 · low · 60 ft · beat Dylan Wells
3rd 15:32Samuel Fagemo (2–3)5v4 · low · 45 ft · beat Dylan Wells
3rd 17:30Penalty