Colorado Eagles at Coachella Valley Firebirds

Acrisure Arena · Palm Desert, CA

Colorado Eagles

5:2

Final

Coachella Valley Firebirds

The sheet

COLCVSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

70%30%

xG: 5.23.4
High danger: 104
Chances: 2714
Shots: 4140

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

CV above the lineCOL belowDots are goals. Pre-game 52% CV.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

41Shots on goal40

27Scoring chances14

10High-danger chances4

5.16Expected goals3.41

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	18–8	10–1	3–0	1.9–0.4
2nd	10–18	8–6	3–3	1.5–1.6
3rd	13–14	9–7	4–1	1.8–1.4

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
CV	2	12:08 of the 3rd	7:52	7:52	+0.028 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Chris Driedger

Shots faced: 41
Saves: 36
Allowed: 5
xGA: 5.16
GSAx: +0.16

Ivan Prosvetov

Shots faced: 40
Saves: 38
Allowed: 2
xGA: 3.41
GSAx: +1.41

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 1:05Cédric Paré (1–0)grade A · rebound · 9 ft · beat Chris Driedger
1st 3:16Penalty
1st 9:23Penalty
1st 11:05Devin Shore (1–1)5v4 · low · 49 ft · beat Ivan Prosvetov
1st 11:35Penalty
1st 12:00Riley Tufte (2–1)5v4 · medium · 34 ft · beat Chris Driedger
2nd 0:47Penalty
2nd 4:54Spencer Smallman (3–1)low · 35 ft · beat Chris Driedger
2nd 15:34Penalty
2nd 19:43Penalty
3rd 4:30Penalty
3rd 6:23Max McCormick (3–2)5v4 · medium · 22 ft · beat Ivan Prosvetov
3rd 7:10Matthew Stienburg (4–2)medium · 24 ft · beat Chris Driedger
3rd 10:46Penalty
3rd 16:57Cal Burke (5–2)low · 39 ft · beat Chris Driedger