AHLDashboard
‹ Saturday, February 17

San Jose Barracuda at Bakersfield Condors

Mechanics Bank Arena · Bakersfield, CA

San Jose Barracuda
7:3
Final
Bakersfield Condors

The sheet

SJBAKSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
51%49%
xG
2.93.1
High danger
85
Chances
1210
Shots
2837

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

0123P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
BAK above the lineSJ belowDots are goals. Pre-game 52% BAK.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

28Shots on goal37
12Scoring chances10
8High-danger chances5
2.89Expected goals3.08

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st11–113–52–31.1–1.1
2nd8–165–45–11.1–1.3
3rd9–104–11–10.7–0.6

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

BAK−30:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
BAK30:00 of the 3rd20:0020:00+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Magnus Chrona
Shots faced
37
Saves
34
Allowed
3
xGA
3.08
GSAx
+0.08
Olivier Rodrigue
Shots faced
18
Saves
14
Allowed
4
xGA
1.98
GSAx
-2.02
Jack Campbell
Shots faced
10
Saves
7
Allowed
3
xGA
0.91
GSAx
-2.09

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 0:42Penalty
  • 1st 8:08Penalty
  • 1st 9:54Penalty
  • 1st 10:29Cole Cassels (1–0)5v4 · high · snap · 22 ft · beat Olivier Rodrigue
  • 1st 11:27Penalty
  • 1st 11:38Nathan Todd (2–0)5v4 · medium · snap · 35 ft · beat Olivier Rodrigue
  • 1st 16:42Penalty
  • 1st 17:23Drake Caggiula (2–1)5v4 · high · snap · 14 ft · beat Magnus Chrona
  • 1st 17:43Scott Sabourin (3–1)low · wrist · 33 ft · beat Olivier Rodrigue
  • 1st 19:27Penalty
  • 2nd 7:23Penalty
  • 2nd 8:40Ethan Cardwell (4–1)5v4 · high · 27 ft · beat Olivier Rodrigue
  • 2nd 10:37Kyle Rau (5–1)5v4 · high · 13 ft · beat Jack Campbell
  • 2nd 10:54Drake Caggiula (5–2)high · wrist · 12 ft · beat Magnus Chrona
  • 2nd 12:29Penalty
  • 2nd 15:12Penalty
  • 2nd 19:30Penalty
  • 3rd 7:42Jacob Peterson (6–2)high · tip · 10 ft · beat Jack Campbell
  • 3rd 12:41Anthony Vincent (7–2)low · tip · 52 ft · beat Jack Campbell
  • 3rd 13:19Dino Kambeitz (7–3)low · 44 ft · beat Magnus Chrona
  • 3rd 17:41Penalty
  • 3rd 17:41Penalty
  • 3rd 19:33Penalty
  • 3rd 19:33Penalty
  • 3rd 19:33Penalty
  • 3rd 19:50Penalty
  • 3rd 19:50Penalty