AHLDashboard
‹ Saturday, February 17

Calgary Wranglers at Abbotsford Canucks

Abbotsford Centre · Abbotsford, BC

Calgary Wranglers
2:1
Final
Abbotsford Canucks

The sheet

CGYABBSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
66%34%
xG
2.81.9
High danger
23
Chances
115
Shots
2730

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

0123P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
ABB above the lineCGY belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% ABB.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

27Shots on goal30
11Scoring chances5
2High-danger chances3
2.84Expected goals1.92

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st10–122–10–00.7–0.7
2nd11–104–30–21.0–0.8
3rd6–85–12–11.1–0.4

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

ABB−2−10:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
ABB212:08 of the 3rd7:526:45+0.028 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Dustin Wolf
Shots faced
30
Saves
29
Allowed
1
xGA
1.92
GSAx
+0.92
Artūrs Šilovs
Shots faced
27
Saves
25
Allowed
2
xGA
2.84
GSAx
+0.84

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 14:42Penalty
  • 1st 14:42Penalty
  • 1st 14:42Penalty
  • 1st 14:42Penalty
  • 1st 15:47Penalty
  • 1st 19:29Penalty
  • 2nd 1:28Penalty
  • 2nd 3:51Penalty
  • 2nd 4:35William Strömgren (1–0)5v4 · low · 41 ft · beat Artūrs Šilovs
  • 2nd 13:11Penalty
  • 2nd 15:07Penalty
  • 3rd 1:02Penalty
  • 3rd 3:01Penalty
  • 3rd 11:30Cole Schwindt (2–0)low · 21 ft · beat Artūrs Šilovs
  • 3rd 15:49Marc Gatcomb (2–1)high · 10 ft · beat Dustin Wolf
  • 3rd 18:55Penalty
  • 3rd 19:55Penalty
  • 3rd 20:00Penalty