AHLDashboard
‹ Sunday, February 18

Colorado Eagles at Bakersfield Condors

Mechanics Bank Arena · Bakersfield, CA

Colorado Eagles
5:2
Final
Bakersfield Condors

The sheet

COLBAKSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
84%16%
xG
5.22.3
High danger
102
Chances
207
Shots
4432

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

024P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
BAK above the lineCOL belowDots are goals. Pre-game 51% BAK.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

44Shots on goal32
20Scoring chances7
10High-danger chances2
5.22Expected goals2.26

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st18–1010–26–12.6–0.8
2nd10–112–21–10.7–0.7
3rd16–118–33–01.9–0.8

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

BAK−3−20:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
BAK30:00 of the 3rd20:0015:41+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Jack Campbell
Shots faced
44
Saves
39
Allowed
5
xGA
5.22
GSAx
+0.22
Ivan Prosvetov
Shots faced
32
Saves
30
Allowed
2
xGA
2.26
GSAx
+0.26

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 0:49Cédric Paré (1–0)high · wrist · 23 ft · beat Jack Campbell
  • 1st 2:00Penalty
  • 1st 4:26Penalty
  • 1st 10:15Penalty
  • 1st 10:15Penalty
  • 1st 10:43Brad Hunt (2–0)low · slap · 25 ft · beat Jack Campbell
  • 1st 11:28Penalty
  • 1st 13:53Penalty
  • 1st 13:53Penalty
  • 1st 13:53Penalty
  • 1st 16:53Ivan Ivan (3–0)grade A · wrist · rebound · 19 ft · beat Jack Campbell
  • 2nd 1:31Drake Caggiula (3–1)high · snap · 17 ft · beat Ivan Prosvetov
  • 2nd 3:04Penalty
  • 2nd 6:33Penalty
  • 2nd 7:22Cal Burke (4–1)5v4 · high · snap · 15 ft · beat Jack Campbell
  • 2nd 9:34Penalty
  • 2nd 15:25Penalty
  • 2nd 15:25Penalty
  • 3rd 2:33Penalty
  • 3rd 2:33Penalty
  • 3rd 7:49Alex Peters (4–2)low · wrist · 39 ft · beat Ivan Prosvetov
  • 3rd 13:30Penalty
  • 3rd 17:19Peter Holland (5–2)medium · wrist · 16 ft · beat Jack Campbell