Henderson Silver Knights at Coachella Valley Firebirds

Acrisure Arena · Palm Desert, CA

Henderson Silver Knights

1:6

Final

Coachella Valley Firebirds

The sheet

HSKCVSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

9%91%

xG: 1.54.7
High danger: 19
Chances: 613
Shots: 2043

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

CV above the lineHSK belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% CV.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

20Shots on goal43

6Scoring chances13

1High-danger chances9

1.52Expected goals4.66

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	13–14	3–3	1–0	0.9–0.9
2nd	3–16	1–5	0–4	0.2–1.8
3rd	4–13	2–5	0–5	0.4–1.9

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
HSK	4	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	20:00	+0.012 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Isaiah Saville

Shots faced: 43
Saves: 37
Allowed: 6
xGA: 4.66
GSAx: -1.34

Aleš Stezka

Shots faced: 20
Saves: 19
Allowed: 1
xGA: 1.53
GSAx: +0.53

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 4:37Cameron Hughes (0–1)medium · 24 ft · beat Isaiah Saville
1st 13:03Penalty
2nd 5:12Max McCormick (0–2)medium · 22 ft · beat Isaiah Saville
2nd 6:52Jimmy Schuldt (0–3)grade A · rebound · 9 ft · beat Isaiah Saville
2nd 7:58Max McCormick (0–4)low · 60 ft · beat Isaiah Saville
2nd 13:42Penalty
2nd 13:42Penalty
3rd 2:53Penalty
3rd 10:16Penalty
3rd 10:37Mason Geertsen (1–4)4v5 · medium · 13 ft · beat Aleš Stezka
3rd 13:53Jimmy Schuldt (1–5)grade A · rebound · 28 ft · beat Isaiah Saville
3rd 18:58Marian Studenic (1–6)low · 48 ft · beat Isaiah Saville