Rochester Americans at Toronto Marlies

Scotiabank Arena · Toronto, ON

Rochester Americans

2:1

Final / OT

Toronto Marlies

The sheet

ROCTORSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

26%74%

xG: 2.03.7
High danger: 12
Chances: 710
Shots: 2653

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals

Win probability, as it happened

TOR above the lineROC belowDots are goals. Pre-game 54% TOR.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

26Shots on goal53

7Scoring chances10

1High-danger chances2

1.98Expected goals3.68

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	8–13	1–2	0–0	0.4–0.7
2nd	9–15	2–2	1–1	0.7–1.3
3rd	8–20	3–4	0–1	0.7–1.3
OT	1–5	1–2	0–0	0.2–0.4

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Nobody trailed late enough in the third for the goalie to be a decision.

In goal

Devon Levi

Shots faced: 53
Saves: 52
Allowed: 1
xGA: 3.68
GSAx: +2.68

Dennis Hildeby

Shots faced: 26
Saves: 24
Allowed: 2
xGA: 1.98
GSAx: -0.02

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 11:13Dylan Gambrell (0–1)medium · 11 ft · beat Devon Levi
1st 14:20Penalty
2nd 0:52Penalty
2nd 1:34Mason Jobst (1–1)5v4 · low · 48 ft · beat Dennis Hildeby
2nd 4:06Penalty
3rd 6:06Penalty
OT 4:41Jeremy Davies (2–1)medium · 20 ft · beat Dennis Hildeby