AHLDashboard
‹ Monday, February 19

Milwaukee Admirals at Manitoba Moose

Canada Life Centre · Winnipeg, MB

Milwaukee Admirals
4:3
Final
Manitoba Moose

The sheet

MILMBSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
82%18%
xG
3.11.7
High danger
62
Chances
136
Shots
2620

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

0123P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
MB above the lineMIL belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% MB.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

26Shots on goal20
13Scoring chances6
6High-danger chances2
3.05Expected goals1.70

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st8–71–31–00.4–0.7
2nd9–46–02–01.2–0.2
3rd9–96–33–21.4–0.9

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

MB−10:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
MB116:56 of the 3rd3:043:04+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Collin Delia
Shots faced
26
Saves
22
Allowed
4
xGA
3.05
GSAx
-0.95
Yaroslav Askarov
Shots faced
20
Saves
17
Allowed
3
xGA
1.70
GSAx
-1.30

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 5:01Penalty
  • 1st 8:53Juuso Pärssinen (1–0)high · 16 ft · beat Collin Delia
  • 1st 9:14Parker Ford (1–1)medium · 25 ft · beat Yaroslav Askarov
  • 1st 10:42Penalty
  • 1st 10:42Penalty
  • 1st 10:42Penalty
  • 1st 10:42Penalty
  • 1st 10:42Penalty
  • 1st 10:42Penalty
  • 1st 15:33Simon Lundmark (1–2)5v4 · medium · 9 ft · beat Yaroslav Askarov
  • 1st 16:08Marc Del Gaizo (2–2)low · 62 ft · beat Collin Delia
  • 1st 18:43Penalty
  • 2nd 4:15Kristian Reichel (2–3)low · 37 ft · beat Yaroslav Askarov
  • 2nd 6:54Penalty
  • 2nd 8:42Juuso Pärssinen (3–3)5v4 · high · 9 ft · beat Collin Delia
  • 2nd 16:40Penalty
  • 3rd 6:43Liam Foudy (4–3)grade A · rebound · 4 ft · beat Collin Delia
  • 3rd 9:23Penalty
  • 3rd 13:53Penalty