AHLDashboard
‹ Monday, February 19

Rockford IceHogs at Iowa Wild

Wells Fargo Arena · Des Moines, IA

Rockford IceHogs
1:3
Final
Iowa Wild

The sheet

RFDIASolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
69%31%
xG
2.72.6
High danger
52
Chances
126
Shots
3033

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

0123P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
IA above the lineRFD belowDots are goals. Pre-game 54% IA.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

30Shots on goal33
12Scoring chances6
5High-danger chances2
2.71Expected goals2.56

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st11–154–21–10.9–1.3
2nd14–75–13–01.3–0.4
3rd5–113–31–10.5–0.9

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

RFD−20:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
RFD212:08 of the 3rd7:527:52+0.028 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Drew Commesso
Shots faced
33
Saves
30
Allowed
3
xGA
2.56
GSAx
-0.44
Jesper Wallstedt
Shots faced
30
Saves
29
Allowed
1
xGA
2.71
GSAx
+1.71

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 2:58Penalty
  • 1st 9:26Caedan Bankier (0–1)grade A · rebound · 7 ft · beat Drew Commesso
  • 1st 12:20Penalty
  • 1st 12:20Penalty
  • 2nd 0:29Penalty
  • 2nd 5:58Will Butcher (0–2)low · 41 ft · beat Drew Commesso
  • 2nd 15:58Penalty
  • 2nd 16:19Mike Hardman (1–2)5v4 · high · 9 ft · beat Jesper Wallstedt
  • 2nd 18:03Penalty
  • 2nd 19:33Penalty
  • 3rd 7:53Joel Teasdale (1–3)low · 26 ft · beat Drew Commesso
  • 3rd 11:43Penalty
  • 3rd 18:11Penalty