Belleville Senators at Rochester Americans

Blue Cross Arena · Rochester, NY

Belleville Senators

4:1

Final

Rochester Americans

The sheet

BELROCSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

77%23%

xG: 3.11.5
High danger: 42
Chances: 114
Shots: 3628

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

ROC above the lineBEL belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% ROC.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

36Shots on goal28

11Scoring chances4

4High-danger chances2

3.09Expected goals1.45

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	9–9	2–2	0–1	0.7–0.5
2nd	13–9	3–2	1–1	0.9–0.5
3rd	14–10	6–0	3–0	1.5–0.4

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
ROC	2	12:35 of the 3rd	7:25	7:25	+0.028 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Devon Levi

Shots faced: 36
Saves: 32
Allowed: 4
xGA: 3.09
GSAx: -0.91

Mads Søgaard

Shots faced: 28
Saves: 27
Allowed: 1
xGA: 1.45
GSAx: +0.45

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 12:15Penalty
1st 14:45Penalty
1st 16:04Rourke Chartier (1–0)4v5 · low · 40 ft · beat Devon Levi
2nd 9:25Penalty
2nd 10:25Mason Jobst (1–1)5v4 · high · 20 ft · beat Mads Søgaard
2nd 19:36Penalty
3rd 4:31Penalty
3rd 7:40Penalty
3rd 10:08Angus Crookshank (2–1)grade A · rebound · 13 ft · beat Devon Levi
3rd 12:35Josh Currie (3–1)medium · 23 ft · beat Devon Levi
3rd 16:17Garrett Pilon (4–1)high · 10 ft · beat Devon Levi