Calgary Wranglers at Manitoba Moose

Canada Life Centre · Winnipeg, MB

Calgary Wranglers

5:2

Final

Manitoba Moose

The sheet

CGYMBSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

82%18%

xG: 3.52.2
High danger: 63
Chances: 126
Shots: 4033

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

MB above the lineCGY belowDots are goals. Pre-game 54% MB.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

40Shots on goal33

12Scoring chances6

6High-danger chances3

3.51Expected goals2.22

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	14–8	5–0	2–0	1.2–0.3
2nd	17–15	3–4	3–1	1.5–1.0
3rd	9–10	4–2	1–2	0.9–0.9

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
MB	4	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	20:00	+0.012 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Thomas Milic

Shots faced: 40
Saves: 35
Allowed: 5
xGA: 3.51
GSAx: -1.49

Dustin Wolf

Shots faced: 33
Saves: 31
Allowed: 2
xGA: 2.22
GSAx: +0.22

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 19:11Colton Poolman (1–0)high · 12 ft · beat Thomas Milic
1st 19:30Penalty
2nd 8:04Will Riedell (2–0)high · 32 ft · beat Thomas Milic
2nd 12:48Alex Gallant (3–0)grade A · rebound · 10 ft · beat Thomas Milic
2nd 17:56Penalty
2nd 19:50Matt Coronato (4–0)4v5 · grade A · 12 ft · beat Thomas Milic
3rd 1:29Cole Schwindt (5–0)medium · 24 ft · beat Thomas Milic
3rd 8:20Penalty
3rd 9:21Jeff Malott (5–1)5v4 · high · 8 ft · beat Dustin Wolf
3rd 12:51Jeff Malott (5–2)low · 41 ft · beat Dustin Wolf