Bakersfield Condors at Tucson Roadrunners

Tucson Convention Center Arena · Tucson, AZ

Bakersfield Condors

3:2

Final

Tucson Roadrunners

The sheet

BAKTUCSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

36%64%

xG: 1.92.6
High danger: 44
Chances: 612
Shots: 2130

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

TUC above the lineBAK belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% TUC.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

21Shots on goal30

6Scoring chances12

4High-danger chances4

1.86Expected goals2.63

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	11–10	2–5	1–2	0.8–1.0
2nd	8–12	3–4	2–0	0.8–0.9
3rd	2–8	1–3	1–2	0.2–0.7

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
TUC	2	12:08 of the 3rd	7:52	4:14	+0.028 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Jack Campbell

Shots faced: 30
Saves: 28
Allowed: 2
xGA: 2.63
GSAx: +0.63

Matthew Villalta

Shots faced: 21
Saves: 18
Allowed: 3
xGA: 1.86
GSAx: -1.14

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 8:10Penalty
1st 19:32Penalty
2nd 4:01Dino Kambeitz (1–0)low · 10 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
2nd 8:05Penalty
2nd 12:18Ty Tullio (2–0)high · 8 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
2nd 19:25Penalty
2nd 19:51Vladislav Kolyachonok (2–1)4v5 · medium · 17 ft · beat Jack Campbell
3rd 0:47Raphael Lavoie (3–1)5v4 · high · 13 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
3rd 6:50Penalty
3rd 6:50Penalty
3rd 7:37Penalty
3rd 12:51Penalty
3rd 13:18Vladislav Kolyachonok (3–2)5v4 · high · 10 ft · beat Jack Campbell
3rd 15:05Penalty
3rd 19:13Penalty