Henderson Silver Knights at Colorado Eagles

Blue Federal Credit Union Arena · Loveland, CO

Henderson Silver Knights

0:4

Final

Colorado Eagles

The sheet

HSKCOLSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

12%88%

xG: 1.64.4
High danger: 213
Chances: 720
Shots: 1536

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

COL above the lineHSK belowDots are goals. Pre-game 54% COL.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

15Shots on goal36

7Scoring chances20

2High-danger chances13

1.58Expected goals4.37

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	5–11	3–7	2–6	0.8–1.7
2nd	6–12	2–7	0–4	0.4–1.4
3rd	4–13	2–6	0–3	0.4–1.2

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
HSK	3	7:58 of the 3rd	12:02	12:02	+0.017 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Jiří Patera

Shots faced: 36
Saves: 32
Allowed: 4
xGA: 4.37
GSAx: +0.37

Ivan Prosvetov

Shots faced: 15
Saves: 15
Allowed: 0
xGA: 1.58
GSAx: +1.58

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 2:06Cédric Paré (0–1)high · 13 ft · beat Jiří Patera
1st 5:12Penalty
1st 14:54Penalty
2nd 1:25Cal Burke (0–2)high · 16 ft · beat Jiří Patera
2nd 8:54Penalty
2nd 18:53Penalty
3rd 7:58Tanner Kero (0–3)high · 14 ft · beat Jiří Patera
3rd 15:16Cédric Paré (0–4)low · 36 ft · beat Jiří Patera