Toronto Marlies at Laval Rocket

Place Bell · Laval, QC

Toronto Marlies

5:1

Final

Laval Rocket

The sheet

TORLAVSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

61%39%

xG: 4.33.2
High danger: 76
Chances: 1714
Shots: 3523

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

LAV above the lineTOR belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% LAV.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

35Shots on goal23

17Scoring chances14

7High-danger chances6

4.31Expected goals3.17

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	14–5	6–3	1–1	1.2–0.6
2nd	15–7	10–5	5–2	2.8–1.0
3rd	6–11	1–6	1–3	0.3–1.6

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
LAV	3	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	20:00	+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Dennis Hildeby

Shots faced: 23
Saves: 22
Allowed: 1
xGA: 3.17
GSAx: +2.17

Kasimir Kaskisuo

Shots faced: 23
Saves: 19
Allowed: 4
xGA: 3.39
GSAx: -0.61

Jakub Dobeš

Shots faced: 12
Saves: 11
Allowed: 1
xGA: 0.92
GSAx: -0.08

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 5:35Penalty
1st 5:35Penalty
1st 15:10Kieffer Bellows (1–0)medium · wrist · 20 ft · beat Kasimir Kaskisuo
1st 19:47Penalty
2nd 0:56Penalty
2nd 1:33Nick Abruzzese (2–0)5v4 · grade A · wrist · rebound · 8 ft · beat Kasimir Kaskisuo
2nd 4:18Penalty
2nd 4:18Penalty
2nd 4:18Penalty
2nd 4:24Joseph Blandisi (3–0)5v4 · grade A · wrist · rebound · 2 ft · beat Kasimir Kaskisuo
2nd 8:50Josiah Slavin (4–0)medium · wrist · 23 ft · beat Kasimir Kaskisuo
2nd 14:57Penalty
2nd 17:19Penalty
2nd 19:12Philippe Maillet (4–1)4v5 · medium · wrist · 29 ft · beat Dennis Hildeby
3rd 4:21Kieffer Bellows (5–1)high · tip · 15 ft · beat Jakub Dobeš
3rd 9:00Penalty
3rd 13:17Penalty