AHLDashboard
‹ Saturday, February 24

Chicago Wolves at Milwaukee Admirals

UW-Milwaukee Panther Arena · Milwaukee, WI

Chicago Wolves
4:5
Final
Milwaukee Admirals

The sheet

CHIMILSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
26%74%
xG
2.23.0
High danger
25
Chances
511
Shots
3234

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

0123P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
MIL above the lineCHI belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% MIL.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

32Shots on goal34
5Scoring chances11
2High-danger chances5
2.22Expected goals2.98

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st14–131–30–30.7–1.3
2nd10–92–50–00.6–0.8
3rd8–122–32–20.9–0.8

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

CHI−10:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
CHI116:56 of the 3rd3:043:04+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Adam Scheel
Shots faced
34
Saves
29
Allowed
5
xGA
2.98
GSAx
-2.02
Troy Grosenick
Shots faced
32
Saves
28
Allowed
4
xGA
2.22
GSAx
-1.78

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 13:57Cody Hodgson (0–1)grade A · 14 ft · beat Adam Scheel
  • 1st 17:34Mitchell Vande Sompel (1–1)low · 49 ft · beat Troy Grosenick
  • 1st 19:22Penalty
  • 1st 19:59Zach L’Heureux (1–2)5v4 · high · 11 ft · beat Adam Scheel
  • 2nd 3:43Joakim Kemell (1–3)low · 45 ft · beat Adam Scheel
  • 2nd 4:42Cory Conacher (2–3)low · 59 ft · beat Troy Grosenick
  • 2nd 7:01Penalty
  • 2nd 13:28Penalty
  • 2nd 14:57Penalty
  • 3rd 8:47Cole Schneider (3–3)grade A · rebound · 8 ft · beat Troy Grosenick
  • 3rd 14:25Penalty
  • 3rd 16:28Cal O’Reilly (3–4)high · 9 ft · beat Adam Scheel
  • 3rd 17:36Cal O’Reilly (3–5)high · 10 ft · beat Adam Scheel
  • 3rd 18:21Rocco Grimaldi (4–5)low · 54 ft · beat Troy Grosenick