AHLDashboard
‹ Saturday, February 24

Iowa Wild at Rockford IceHogs

BMO Center · Rockford, IL

Iowa Wild
3:6
Final
Rockford IceHogs

The sheet

IARFDSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
36%64%
xG
3.33.6
High danger
38
Chances
1015
Shots
3334

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

0123P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
RFD above the lineIA belowDots are goals. Pre-game 52% RFD.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

33Shots on goal34
10Scoring chances15
3High-danger chances8
3.31Expected goals3.56

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st12–112–30–10.7–0.8
2nd14–146–62–21.7–1.3
3rd7–92–61–50.9–1.5

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

IA−40:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
IA40:00 of the 3rd20:0020:00+0.012 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Zane McIntyre
Shots faced
34
Saves
28
Allowed
6
xGA
3.56
GSAx
-2.44
Jaxson Stauber
Shots faced
33
Saves
30
Allowed
3
xGA
3.31
GSAx
+0.31

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 5:44Brett Seney (0–1)medium · 9 ft · beat Zane McIntyre
  • 1st 9:11Penalty
  • 1st 9:11Penalty
  • 1st 10:15Simon Johansson (1–1)low · 42 ft · beat Jaxson Stauber
  • 1st 11:35Penalty
  • 1st 12:40Mike Hardman (1–2)5v4 · high · 28 ft · beat Zane McIntyre
  • 1st 14:10Kevin Conley (2–2)low · 29 ft · beat Jaxson Stauber
  • 1st 15:47Penalty
  • 2nd 2:45Penalty
  • 2nd 4:33Anders Bjork (2–3)5v4 · high · 16 ft · beat Zane McIntyre
  • 2nd 5:30Nolan Allan (2–4)low · 65 ft · beat Zane McIntyre
  • 2nd 6:46Penalty
  • 2nd 11:46Penalty
  • 2nd 13:26Penalty
  • 2nd 15:26Penalty
  • 2nd 15:26Penalty
  • 2nd 16:44Cole Guttman (2–5)high · 29 ft · beat Zane McIntyre
  • 2nd 18:39Penalty
  • 2nd 18:39Penalty
  • 2nd 19:49Rem Pitlick (2–6)medium · 18 ft · beat Zane McIntyre
  • 3rd 3:09Penalty
  • 3rd 7:33Penalty
  • 3rd 10:53Penalty
  • 3rd 10:53Penalty
  • 3rd 12:39Penalty
  • 3rd 12:57Adam Beckman (3–6)5v4 · grade A · rebound · 16 ft · beat Jaxson Stauber