Ontario Reign at San Diego Gulls

Pechanga Arena San Diego · San Diego, CA

Ontario Reign

3:2

Final

San Diego Gulls

The sheet

ONTSDSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

43%57%

xG: 3.03.7
High danger: 35
Chances: 1013
Shots: 3233

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

SD above the lineONT belowDots are goals. Pre-game 52% SD.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

32Shots on goal33

10Scoring chances13

3High-danger chances5

3.01Expected goals3.70

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	12–9	3–4	0–2	0.9–1.1
2nd	10–16	3–6	1–3	0.8–1.8
3rd	10–8	4–3	2–0	1.3–0.8

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
SD	3	0:37 of the 3rd	19:23	3:27	+0.023 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Erik Portillo

Shots faced: 33
Saves: 31
Allowed: 2
xGA: 3.70
GSAx: +1.70

Calle Clang

Shots faced: 32
Saves: 29
Allowed: 3
xGA: 3.01
GSAx: +0.01

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 8:02Penalty
1st 8:37Samuel Fagemo (1–0)5v4 · low · 53 ft · beat Calle Clang
1st 17:42Penalty
2nd 2:00Penalty
2nd 4:39Penalty
2nd 8:16Martin Chromiak (2–0)high · 10 ft · beat Calle Clang
2nd 13:14Penalty
2nd 13:24Penalty
2nd 16:09Penalty
2nd 16:09Penalty
2nd 18:00Penalty
3rd 0:37Charles Hudon (3–0)low · 32 ft · beat Calle Clang
3rd 1:00Olen Zellweger (3–1)medium · 22 ft · beat Erik Portillo
3rd 2:45Penalty
3rd 3:07Chase De Leo (3–2)5v4 · medium · 14 ft · beat Erik Portillo
3rd 9:11Penalty