AHLDashboard
‹ Saturday, February 24

Bakersfield Condors at Tucson Roadrunners

Tucson Convention Center Arena · Tucson, AZ

Bakersfield Condors
3:2
Final
Tucson Roadrunners

The sheet

BAKTUCSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
47%53%
xG
2.02.5
High danger
22
Chances
117
Shots
2135

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

00.511.522.5P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
TUC above the lineBAK belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% TUC.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

21Shots on goal35
11Scoring chances7
2High-danger chances2
2.03Expected goals2.48

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st8–102–21–10.6–0.7
2nd10–56–21–01.1–0.4
3rd3–203–30–10.4–1.4

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

TUC−3−20:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
TUC30:00 of the 3rd20:009:21+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Olivier Rodrigue
Shots faced
35
Saves
33
Allowed
2
xGA
2.48
GSAx
+0.48
Matthew Villalta
Shots faced
21
Saves
18
Allowed
3
xGA
2.03
GSAx
-0.97

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 2:12Jayden Grubbe (1–0)high · 17 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
  • 1st 8:47Penalty
  • 1st 12:35Penalty
  • 1st 12:35Penalty
  • 2nd 11:36Dino Kambeitz (2–0)medium · 15 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
  • 2nd 15:25Cameron Wright (3–0)high · 18 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
  • 2nd 17:23Penalty
  • 3rd 0:27Penalty
  • 3rd 1:29Vladislav Kolyachonok (3–1)5v4 · low · 56 ft · beat Olivier Rodrigue
  • 3rd 3:41Penalty
  • 3rd 9:04Penalty
  • 3rd 10:46Penalty
  • 3rd 12:32Penalty
  • 3rd 19:23Curtis Douglas (3–2)low · 59 ft · beat Olivier Rodrigue