AHLDashboard
‹ Sunday, February 25

Springfield Thunderbirds at Bridgeport Islanders

Total Mortgage Arena · Bridgeport, CT

Springfield Thunderbirds
3:5
Final
Bridgeport Islanders

The sheet

SPRBRISolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
33%67%
xG
2.55.2
High danger
46
Chances
1019
Shots
2954

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

024P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
BRI above the lineSPR belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% BRI.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

29Shots on goal54
10Scoring chances19
4High-danger chances6
2.52Expected goals5.23

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st9–174–72–30.8–1.6
2nd8–154–41–20.8–1.6
3rd12–222–81–10.9–2.0

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

SPR−10:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
SPR116:56 of the 3rd3:043:04+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Colten Ellis
Shots faced
54
Saves
49
Allowed
5
xGA
5.23
GSAx
+0.23
Henrik Tikkanen
Shots faced
29
Saves
26
Allowed
3
xGA
2.52
GSAx
-0.48

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 5:34Penalty
  • 1st 8:19Sam Bitten (1–0)high · 10 ft · beat Henrik Tikkanen
  • 1st 10:14Penalty
  • 1st 12:54Jakub Vrana (2–0)high · 13 ft · beat Henrik Tikkanen
  • 1st 13:49Tyce Thompson (2–1)medium · 16 ft · beat Colten Ellis
  • 1st 17:49Penalty
  • 2nd 0:43Penalty
  • 2nd 6:34Ryan Suzuki (3–1)medium · 17 ft · beat Henrik Tikkanen
  • 2nd 9:32Penalty
  • 2nd 17:08Ruslan Iskhakov (3–2)grade A · rebound · 15 ft · beat Colten Ellis
  • 2nd 19:04Ruslan Iskhakov (3–3)low · 42 ft · beat Colten Ellis
  • 3rd 11:34Samuel Bolduc (3–4)low · rebound · 36 ft · beat Colten Ellis
  • 3rd 19:12Penalty
  • 3rd 19:12Penalty
  • 3rd 19:12Penalty
  • 3rd 19:12Penalty
  • 3rd 19:56Penalty
  • 3rd 19:56Hudson Fasching (3–5)empty net · low · 54 ft · beat Colten Ellis