AHLDashboard
‹ Sunday, February 25

Utica Comets at Syracuse Crunch

Upstate Medical University Arena · Syracuse, NY

Utica Comets
5:2
Final
Syracuse Crunch

The sheet

UTCSYRSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
67%33%
xG
4.43.0
High danger
107
Chances
238
Shots
3930

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

01234P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
SYR above the lineUTC belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% SYR.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

39Shots on goal30
23Scoring chances8
10High-danger chances7
4.37Expected goals2.96

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st11–135–42–31.0–1.3
2nd13–1010–24–21.7–0.9
3rd15–78–24–21.7–0.7

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

SYR−10:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
SYR116:56 of the 3rd3:043:04+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Matt Tomkins
Shots faced
39
Saves
34
Allowed
5
xGA
4.37
GSAx
-0.63
Erik Källgren
Shots faced
30
Saves
28
Allowed
2
xGA
2.96
GSAx
+0.96

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 8:45Penalty
  • 1st 9:08Kyle Criscuolo (1–0)5v4 · high · 12 ft · beat Matt Tomkins
  • 1st 10:25Chase Stillman (2–0)medium · 13 ft · beat Matt Tomkins
  • 1st 13:32Daniel Walcott (2–1)medium · 13 ft · beat Erik Källgren
  • 1st 13:39Penalty
  • 1st 13:39Penalty
  • 1st 13:39Penalty
  • 2nd 2:21Penalty
  • 2nd 4:33Penalty
  • 2nd 5:26Penalty
  • 2nd 5:26Penalty
  • 2nd 5:59Gabriel Fortier (2–2)5v4 · high · 6 ft · beat Erik Källgren
  • 2nd 7:01Penalty
  • 2nd 7:28Penalty
  • 2nd 7:57Penalty
  • 2nd 10:42Penalty
  • 3rd 2:42Chase Stillman (3–2)low · 58 ft · beat Matt Tomkins
  • 3rd 7:33Penalty
  • 3rd 17:52Joe Gambardella (4–2)medium · 30 ft · beat Matt Tomkins
  • 3rd 18:17Chase Stillman (5–2)empty net · medium · 19 ft · beat Matt Tomkins