AHLDashboard
‹ Tuesday, February 27

San Jose Barracuda at Ontario Reign

Toyota Arena · Ontario, CA

San Jose Barracuda
2:8
Final
Ontario Reign

The sheet

SJONTSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
53%47%
xG
4.53.5
High danger
76
Chances
1617
Shots
4031

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

012345P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
ONT above the lineSJ belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% ONT.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

40Shots on goal31
16Scoring chances17
7High-danger chances6
4.48Expected goals3.48

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st8–71–50–10.6–0.8
2nd13–158–74–22.0–1.6
3rd19–97–53–31.9–1.1

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

SJ−40:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
SJ40:00 of the 3rd20:0020:00+0.012 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Erik Portillo
Shots faced
40
Saves
38
Allowed
2
xGA
4.48
GSAx
+2.48
Magnus Chrona
Shots faced
24
Saves
19
Allowed
5
xGA
2.72
GSAx
-2.28
Georgii Romanov
Shots faced
7
Saves
4
Allowed
3
xGA
0.76
GSAx
-2.24

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 2:13Nikita Pavlychev (0–1)medium · 10 ft · beat Georgii Romanov
  • 1st 5:45Penalty
  • 1st 7:48Francesco Pinelli (0–2)medium · 8 ft · beat Georgii Romanov
  • 1st 7:53Penalty
  • 1st 13:49Penalty
  • 1st 13:49Penalty
  • 1st 19:11Samuel Fagemo (0–3)high · 13 ft · beat Georgii Romanov
  • 2nd 2:43Jack Studnicka (1–3)high · 13 ft · beat Erik Portillo
  • 2nd 3:52Penalty
  • 2nd 5:15Jack Studnicka (2–3)5v4 · grade A · rebound · 8 ft · beat Erik Portillo
  • 2nd 14:11Joe Hicketts (2–4)grade A · rebound · 16 ft · beat Magnus Chrona
  • 2nd 17:31Penalty
  • 2nd 18:26Samuel Fagemo (2–5)5v4 · high · rebound · 21 ft · beat Magnus Chrona
  • 2nd 18:54Penalty
  • 2nd 19:54Charles Hudon (2–6)5v4 · medium · 17 ft · beat Magnus Chrona
  • 3rd 2:34Penalty
  • 3rd 6:18Penalty
  • 3rd 8:53Penalty
  • 3rd 8:53Penalty
  • 3rd 9:17Kevin Connauton (2–7)empty net · low · 82 ft · beat Magnus Chrona
  • 3rd 10:30Penalty
  • 3rd 14:27Samuel Fagemo (2–8)high · 14 ft · beat Magnus Chrona
  • 3rd 17:43Penalty
  • 3rd 19:57Penalty
  • 3rd 19:57Penalty
  • 3rd 19:57Penalty