Colorado Eagles at Abbotsford Canucks

Abbotsford Centre · Abbotsford, BC

Colorado Eagles

5:2

Final

Abbotsford Canucks

The sheet

COLABBSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

42%58%

xG: 3.02.9
High danger: 35
Chances: 910
Shots: 3434

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

ABB above the lineCOL belowDots are goals. Pre-game 51% ABB.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

34Shots on goal34

9Scoring chances10

3High-danger chances5

2.95Expected goals2.86

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	10–17	3–6	2–3	0.9–1.6
2nd	14–7	4–2	1–0	1.3–0.5
3rd	10–10	2–2	0–2	0.7–0.7

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
ABB	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Ivan Prosvetov

Shots faced: 34
Saves: 32
Allowed: 2
xGA: 2.86
GSAx: +0.86

Nikita Tolopilo

Shots faced: 32
Saves: 29
Allowed: 3
xGA: 2.70
GSAx: -0.30

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 15:44Penalty
1st 16:13Aatu Räty (0–1)5v4 · high · 8 ft · beat Ivan Prosvetov
1st 19:56Riley Tufte (1–1)high · rebound · 14 ft · beat Nikita Tolopilo
2nd 5:13Ivan Ivan (2–1)grade A · rebound · 15 ft · beat Nikita Tolopilo
2nd 6:55Penalty
2nd 16:57Ben Meyers (3–1)low · 16 ft · beat Nikita Tolopilo
3rd 2:45Penalty
3rd 6:59Penalty
3rd 9:03Cole McWard (3–2)low · rebound · 56 ft · beat Ivan Prosvetov
3rd 9:24Penalty
3rd 16:47Penalty
3rd 19:04Tanner Kero (4–2)empty net · medium · 14 ft
3rd 19:59Ivan Ivan (5–2)empty net · low · 32 ft