AHLDashboard
‹ Wednesday, February 28

Toronto Marlies at Cleveland Monsters

Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse · Cleveland, OH

Toronto Marlies
3:4
Final / OT
Cleveland Monsters

The sheet

TORCLESolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
79%21%
xG
4.62.5
High danger
103
Chances
178
Shots
4629

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

012345P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
CLE above the lineTOR belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% CLE.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

46Shots on goal29
17Scoring chances8
10High-danger chances3
4.65Expected goals2.53

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st21–79–35–22.4–0.6
2nd9–103–32–00.8–0.9
3rd13–94–13–11.2–0.8
OT3–31–10–00.3–0.2

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

TOR−10:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
TOR116:56 of the 3rd3:041:46+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Jet Greaves
Shots faced
46
Saves
43
Allowed
3
xGA
4.65
GSAx
+1.65
Dennis Hildeby
Shots faced
29
Saves
25
Allowed
4
xGA
2.53
GSAx
-1.47

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 0:43Penalty
  • 1st 8:54Penalty
  • 1st 14:00Dylan Gambrell (1–0)low · 32 ft · beat Jet Greaves
  • 1st 14:51Penalty
  • 1st 19:46Brendan Gaunce (1–1)high · 17 ft · beat Dennis Hildeby
  • 2nd 0:04Penalty
  • 2nd 0:04Penalty
  • 2nd 8:01Penalty
  • 2nd 8:24Penalty
  • 2nd 14:00Cameron Butler (1–2)low · 10 ft · beat Dennis Hildeby
  • 2nd 15:39Penalty
  • 3rd 10:26Joseph Blandisi (2–2)low · 26 ft · beat Jet Greaves
  • 3rd 13:41Penalty
  • 3rd 13:41Penalty
  • 3rd 16:28Brendan Gaunce (2–3)grade A · rebound · 16 ft · beat Dennis Hildeby
  • 3rd 18:42Penalty
  • 3rd 18:42Kieffer Bellows (3–3)grade A · 8 ft · beat Jet Greaves
  • OT 3:31Trey Fix-Wolansky (3–4)medium · 18 ft · beat Dennis Hildeby