Utica Comets at Belleville Senators

CAA Arena · Belleville, ON

Utica Comets

0:3

Final

Belleville Senators

The sheet

UTCBELSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

19%81%

xG: 2.12.6
High danger: 05
Chances: 910
Shots: 3029

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

BEL above the lineUTC belowDots are goals. Pre-game 52% BEL.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

30Shots on goal29

9Scoring chances10

0High-danger chances5

2.14Expected goals2.65

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	11–7	7–1	0–1	1.2–0.3
2nd	10–14	0–6	0–3	0.4–1.7
3rd	9–8	2–3	0–1	0.5–0.7

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
UTC	2	12:08 of the 3rd	7:52	7:52	+0.028 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Leevi Meriläinen

Shots faced: 30
Saves: 30
Allowed: 0
xGA: 2.14
GSAx: +2.14

Isaac Poulter

Shots faced: 29
Saves: 26
Allowed: 3
xGA: 2.65
GSAx: -0.35

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 3:02Penalty
1st 6:23Penalty
1st 11:32Penalty
1st 19:20Penalty
2nd 4:07Kyle Betts (0–1)grade A · rebound · 16 ft · beat Isaac Poulter
2nd 7:42Rourke Chartier (0–2)high · rebound · 24 ft · beat Isaac Poulter
2nd 17:21Penalty
2nd 17:21Penalty
3rd 12:29Penalty
3rd 19:28Angus Crookshank (0–3)empty net · medium · 33 ft · beat Isaac Poulter