San Diego Gulls at Texas Stars

H-E-B Center at Cedar Park · Cedar Park, TX

San Diego Gulls

3:4

Final

Texas Stars

The sheet

SDTEXSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

51%49%

xG: 4.53.7
High danger: 88
Chances: 1915
Shots: 4131

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

TEX above the lineSD belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% TEX.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

41Shots on goal31

19Scoring chances15

8High-danger chances8

4.54Expected goals3.74

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	7–8	2–3	0–1	0.6–0.8
2nd	15–14	11–8	6–5	2.1–1.9
3rd	19–9	6–4	2–2	1.8–1.1

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
SD	3	7:34 of the 3rd	12:26	11:59	+0.017 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Rémi Poirier

Shots faced: 41
Saves: 38
Allowed: 3
xGA: 4.54
GSAx: +1.54

Alex Stalock

Shots faced: 31
Saves: 27
Allowed: 4
xGA: 3.74
GSAx: -0.26

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 4:01Penalty
1st 4:34Matěj Blümel (0–1)5v4 · medium · 27 ft · beat Alex Stalock
1st 5:05Christian Kyrou (0–2)low · 35 ft · beat Alex Stalock
1st 17:07Penalty
2nd 5:37Penalty
2nd 5:53Olen Zellweger (1–2)5v4 · low · 32 ft · beat Rémi Poirier
2nd 7:58Penalty
2nd 11:39Penalty
2nd 16:56Penalty
2nd 18:06Oskar Bäck (1–3)5v4 · high · 14 ft · beat Alex Stalock
2nd 19:49Penalty
3rd 3:54Penalty
3rd 5:54Penalty
3rd 7:34Christian Kyrou (1–4)5v4 · low · 42 ft · beat Alex Stalock
3rd 12:53Josh Lopina (2–4)high · 8 ft · beat Rémi Poirier
3rd 16:29Glenn Gawdin (3–4)low · 63 ft · beat Rémi Poirier