AHLDashboard
‹ Wednesday, February 28

Tucson Roadrunners at Bakersfield Condors

Mechanics Bank Arena · Bakersfield, CA

Tucson Roadrunners
2:7
Final
Bakersfield Condors

The sheet

TUCBAKSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
70%30%
xG
3.92.1
High danger
53
Chances
108
Shots
4126

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

01234P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
BAK above the lineTUC belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% BAK.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

41Shots on goal26
10Scoring chances8
5High-danger chances3
3.90Expected goals2.13

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st14–65–42–11.5–0.6
2nd13–103–12–11.2–0.8
3rd14–102–31–11.2–0.7

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

TUC−30:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
TUC30:00 of the 3rd20:0020:00+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Jack Campbell
Shots faced
41
Saves
39
Allowed
2
xGA
3.90
GSAx
+1.90
Dylan Wells
Shots faced
26
Saves
19
Allowed
7
xGA
2.13
GSAx
-4.87

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 2:21Ty Tullio (0–1)medium · tip · 17 ft · beat Dylan Wells
  • 1st 6:26Carl Berglund (0–2)high · tip · 12 ft · beat Dylan Wells
  • 1st 9:39Penalty
  • 1st 19:00Aku Räty (1–2)high · wrist · rebound · 8 ft · beat Jack Campbell
  • 2nd 8:25Penalty
  • 2nd 8:25Penalty
  • 2nd 8:25Penalty
  • 2nd 8:25Penalty
  • 2nd 8:25Penalty
  • 2nd 10:53Raphael Lavoie (1–3)low · snap · 35 ft · beat Dylan Wells
  • 2nd 12:22Raphael Lavoie (1–4)low · wrist · 40 ft · beat Dylan Wells
  • 2nd 17:45Penalty
  • 3rd 2:59Xavier Bourgault (1–5)medium · wrist · 17 ft · beat Dylan Wells
  • 3rd 4:43Seth Griffith (1–6)low · wrist · 41 ft · beat Dylan Wells
  • 3rd 15:16Raphael Lavoie (1–7)low · slap · 32 ft · beat Dylan Wells
  • 3rd 15:30Aku Räty (2–7)grade A · wrist · rebound · 12 ft · beat Jack Campbell
  • 3rd 18:26Penalty