Colorado Eagles at Abbotsford Canucks

Abbotsford Centre · Abbotsford, BC

Colorado Eagles

4:3

Final / OT

Abbotsford Canucks

The sheet

COLABBSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

45%55%

xG: 3.44.2
High danger: 56
Chances: 1514
Shots: 3043

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

ABB above the lineCOL belowDots are goals. Pre-game 51% ABB.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

30Shots on goal43

15Scoring chances14

5High-danger chances6

3.41Expected goals4.17

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	12–20	6–8	3–3	1.5–2.3
2nd	11–10	7–4	2–2	1.2–1.0
3rd	5–12	2–2	0–1	0.5–0.9
OT	2–1	0–0	0–0	0.2–0.1

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
ABB	2	12:08 of the 3rd	7:52	0:55	+0.028 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Trent Miner

Shots faced: 43
Saves: 40
Allowed: 3
xGA: 4.17
GSAx: +1.17

Artūrs Šilovs

Shots faced: 30
Saves: 26
Allowed: 4
xGA: 3.41
GSAx: -0.59

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 0:51Linus Karlsson (0–1)grade A · rebound · 10 ft · beat Trent Miner
1st 9:23Penalty
1st 11:35Keaton Middleton (1–1)high · rebound · 7 ft · beat Artūrs Šilovs
1st 15:51Penalty
1st 19:47Jean-Luc Foudy (2–1)grade A · 7 ft · beat Artūrs Šilovs
2nd 0:55Penalty
2nd 11:46Tanner Kero (3–1)low · 28 ft · beat Artūrs Šilovs
2nd 17:45Penalty
3rd 13:03Sheldon Dries (3–2)low · 8 ft · beat Trent Miner
3rd 16:02Matt Irwin (3–3)low · 63 ft · beat Trent Miner
OT 4:35Cédric Paré (4–3)low · 29 ft · beat Artūrs Šilovs