Iowa Wild at Grand Rapids Griffins

Van Andel Arena · Grand Rapids, MI

Iowa Wild

3:4

Final

Grand Rapids Griffins

The sheet

IAGRSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

69%31%

xG: 3.22.0
High danger: 73
Chances: 99
Shots: 3123

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

GR above the lineIA belowDots are goals. Pre-game 54% GR.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

31Shots on goal23

9Scoring chances9

7High-danger chances3

3.24Expected goals1.95

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	8–6	1–3	0–1	0.4–0.6
2nd	12–6	4–2	4–1	1.3–0.4
3rd	11–11	4–4	3–1	1.5–0.9

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
IA	2	15:36 of the 3rd	4:24	4:24	+0.021 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Michael Hutchinson

Shots faced: 31
Saves: 28
Allowed: 3
xGA: 3.24
GSAx: +0.24

Jesper Wallstedt

Shots faced: 23
Saves: 19
Allowed: 4
xGA: 1.95
GSAx: -2.05

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 3:26Penalty
1st 11:29Penalty
1st 13:31Penalty
1st 14:04Penalty
1st 14:15Kevin Conley (1–0)low · 44 ft · beat Michael Hutchinson
1st 14:53Carter Mazur (1–1)high · 15 ft · beat Jesper Wallstedt
1st 17:16Elmer Söderblom (1–2)medium · 9 ft · beat Jesper Wallstedt
2nd 2:11Penalty
2nd 4:12Michael Milne (2–2)low · 37 ft · beat Michael Hutchinson
2nd 11:19Penalty
3rd 0:51Penalty
3rd 5:39Jonatan Berggren (2–3)low · 30 ft · beat Jesper Wallstedt
3rd 8:17Penalty
3rd 13:28Penalty
3rd 15:36Zach Aston-Reese (2–4)high · 7 ft · beat Jesper Wallstedt
3rd 19:21Daemon Hunt (3–4)low · 24 ft · beat Michael Hutchinson