Lehigh Valley Phantoms at Utica Comets

Adirondack Bank Center · Utica, NY

Lehigh Valley Phantoms

0:3

Final

Utica Comets

The sheet

LVUTCSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

63%37%

xG: 2.31.8
High danger: 22
Chances: 108
Shots: 2820

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

UTC above the lineLV belowDots are goals. Pre-game 54% UTC.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

28Shots on goal20

10Scoring chances8

2High-danger chances2

2.32Expected goals1.80

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	11–5	4–2	1–0	0.9–0.3
2nd	8–11	2–5	1–1	0.5–1.1
3rd	9–4	4–1	0–1	0.9–0.3

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
LV	2	15:27 of the 3rd	4:33	4:33	+0.022 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Erik Källgren

Shots faced: 28
Saves: 28
Allowed: 0
xGA: 2.32
GSAx: +2.32

Cal Petersen

Shots faced: 20
Saves: 17
Allowed: 3
xGA: 1.80
GSAx: -1.20

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 7:11Justin Dowling (0–1)medium · 22 ft · beat Cal Petersen
1st 9:48Penalty
1st 14:01Penalty
1st 14:01Penalty
1st 14:01Penalty
1st 18:55Penalty
1st 18:55Penalty
1st 18:55Penalty
1st 19:53Penalty
2nd 15:12Penalty
3rd 2:11Penalty
3rd 8:55Penalty
3rd 13:36Penalty
3rd 15:27Ryan Schmelzer (0–2)5v4 · high · 11 ft · beat Cal Petersen
3rd 17:45Penalty
3rd 17:45Chase Stillman (0–3)empty net · low · 168 ft · beat Cal Petersen