Rochester Americans at Belleville Senators

CAA Arena · Belleville, ON

Rochester Americans

4:1

Final

Belleville Senators

The sheet

ROCBELSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

75%25%

xG: 3.02.5
High danger: 71
Chances: 1110
Shots: 3531

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

BEL above the lineROC belowDots are goals. Pre-game 52% BEL.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

35Shots on goal31

11Scoring chances10

7High-danger chances1

3.05Expected goals2.52

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	14–12	6–4	3–0	1.4–0.8
2nd	13–7	3–2	3–1	1.2–0.7
3rd	8–12	2–4	1–0	0.5–1.0

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
BEL	3	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	20:00	+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Leevi Meriläinen

Shots faced: 35
Saves: 31
Allowed: 4
xGA: 3.05
GSAx: -0.95

Devon Levi

Shots faced: 31
Saves: 30
Allowed: 1
xGA: 2.52
GSAx: +1.52

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 13:07Tyson Jost (1–0)high · 16 ft · beat Leevi Meriläinen
1st 14:26Aleksandr Kisakov (2–0)low · 36 ft · beat Leevi Meriläinen
1st 16:19Penalty
1st 16:19Penalty
1st 16:19Penalty
2nd 9:38Penalty
2nd 10:47Penalty
2nd 10:47Penalty
2nd 11:47Lukáš Rousek (3–0)5v4 · high · 20 ft · beat Leevi Meriläinen
2nd 12:19Brett Murray (4–0)5v4 · high · 22 ft · beat Leevi Meriläinen
2nd 15:04Angus Crookshank (4–1)medium · 19 ft · beat Devon Levi
2nd 16:26Penalty
2nd 18:18Penalty
2nd 19:58Penalty
3rd 15:26Penalty
3rd 15:26Penalty
3rd 18:41Penalty