AHLDashboard
‹ Friday, March 1

Springfield Thunderbirds at Providence Bruins

Amica Mutual Pavilion · Providence, RI

Springfield Thunderbirds
2:4
Final
Providence Bruins

The sheet

SPRPROSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
15%85%
xG
1.92.4
High danger
02
Chances
78
Shots
2729

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

00.511.522.5P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
PRO above the lineSPR belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% PRO.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

27Shots on goal29
7Scoring chances8
0High-danger chances2
1.87Expected goals2.41

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st8–112–20–10.5–0.9
2nd10–113–40–10.8–1.1
3rd9–72–20–00.5–0.5

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

SPR−20:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
SPR212:08 of the 3rd7:527:52+0.028 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Malcolm Subban
Shots faced
29
Saves
25
Allowed
4
xGA
2.41
GSAx
-1.59
Michael DiPietro
Shots faced
27
Saves
25
Allowed
2
xGA
1.87
GSAx
-0.13

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 10:46Penalty
  • 1st 14:14Trevor Kuntar (0–1)high · 4 ft · beat Malcolm Subban
  • 1st 19:00Penalty
  • 2nd 3:33Penalty
  • 2nd 6:35Penalty
  • 2nd 10:23Adam Gaudette (1–1)medium · 21 ft · beat Michael DiPietro
  • 2nd 15:26Trevor Kuntar (1–2)medium · rebound · 41 ft · beat Malcolm Subban
  • 3rd 2:40Tanner Dickinson (2–2)medium · 17 ft · beat Michael DiPietro
  • 3rd 4:03John Beecher (2–3)medium · 31 ft · beat Malcolm Subban
  • 3rd 6:16John Beecher (2–4)low · 42 ft · beat Malcolm Subban
  • 3rd 14:43Penalty
  • 3rd 14:43Penalty
  • 3rd 14:43Penalty