Rockford IceHogs at Milwaukee Admirals

UW-Milwaukee Panther Arena · Milwaukee, WI

Rockford IceHogs

4:2

Final

Milwaukee Admirals

The sheet

RFDMILSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

43%57%

xG: 2.93.4
High danger: 55
Chances: 1313
Shots: 3134

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

MIL above the lineRFD belowDots are goals. Pre-game 54% MIL.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

31Shots on goal34

13Scoring chances13

5High-danger chances5

2.86Expected goals3.38

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	12–13	4–6	2–3	0.9–1.3
2nd	13–10	5–3	2–1	1.2–0.9
3rd	6–11	4–4	1–1	0.8–1.1

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
MIL	1	19:21 of the 3rd	0:39	0:39	+0.013 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Drew Commesso

Shots faced: 34
Saves: 32
Allowed: 2
xGA: 3.38
GSAx: +1.38

Yaroslav Askarov

Shots faced: 31
Saves: 27
Allowed: 4
xGA: 2.86
GSAx: -1.14

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 2:54Cody Hodgson (0–1)medium · 13 ft · beat Drew Commesso
1st 3:28Penalty
1st 8:12Penalty
1st 12:32Rem Pitlick (1–1)high · 6 ft · beat Yaroslav Askarov
2nd 12:56Penalty
2nd 12:56Penalty
2nd 13:46Cody Hodgson (1–2)low · 55 ft · beat Drew Commesso
2nd 16:18Penalty
2nd 16:18Penalty
3rd 0:37Penalty
3rd 3:41Penalty
3rd 7:39Rem Pitlick (2–2)medium · 7 ft · beat Yaroslav Askarov
3rd 19:21Michal Teplý (3–2)high · 9 ft · beat Yaroslav Askarov
3rd 19:42Brett Seney (4–2)empty net · medium · 19 ft · beat Yaroslav Askarov