AHLDashboard
‹ Friday, March 1

Colorado Eagles at Calgary Wranglers

Scotiabank Saddledome · Calgary, AB

Colorado Eagles
5:4
Final
Calgary Wranglers

The sheet

COLCGYSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
66%34%
xG
2.41.7
High danger
32
Chances
105
Shots
3224

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

00.511.522.5P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
CGY above the lineCOL belowDots are goals. Pre-game 50% CGY.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

32Shots on goal24
10Scoring chances5
3High-danger chances2
2.45Expected goals1.74

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st7–110–30–10.3–0.9
2nd13–63–01–01.0–0.3
3rd12–77–22–11.2–0.6

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

CGY0:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
CGY119:16 of the 3rd0:440:44+0.015 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Dustin Wolf
Shots faced
32
Saves
27
Allowed
5
xGA
2.45
GSAx
-2.55
Trent Miner
Shots faced
13
Saves
13
Allowed
0
xGA
0.89
GSAx
+0.89
Ivan Prosvetov
Shots faced
11
Saves
7
Allowed
4
xGA
0.85
GSAx
-3.15

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 2:50Lucas Ciona (0–1)low · snap · 30 ft · beat Ivan Prosvetov
  • 1st 7:57Ben Jones (0–2)high · snap · 19 ft · beat Ivan Prosvetov
  • 1st 10:05Ben Jones (0–3)medium · tip · 8 ft · beat Ivan Prosvetov
  • 1st 19:32Lucas Ciona (0–4)medium · wrist · 33 ft · beat Ivan Prosvetov
  • 2nd 2:33Penalty
  • 2nd 9:49Penalty
  • 2nd 9:49Penalty
  • 2nd 9:49Penalty
  • 2nd 11:33Tanner Kero (1–4)4v5 · low · snap · 27 ft · beat Dustin Wolf
  • 2nd 18:10Brad Hunt (2–4)low · slap · 51 ft · beat Dustin Wolf
  • 3rd 3:53Tanner Kero (3–4)high · tip · 11 ft · beat Dustin Wolf
  • 3rd 15:52Riley Tufte (4–4)high · wrist · 18 ft · beat Dustin Wolf
  • 3rd 19:16Ben Meyers (5–4)medium · snap · 23 ft · beat Dustin Wolf