Coachella Valley Firebirds at Bakersfield Condors

Mechanics Bank Arena · Bakersfield, CA

Coachella Valley Firebirds

4:1

Final

Bakersfield Condors

The sheet

CVBAKSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

92%8%

xG: 3.30.9
High danger: 41
Chances: 132
Shots: 3514

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

BAK above the lineCV belowDots are goals. Pre-game 52% BAK.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

35Shots on goal14

13Scoring chances2

4High-danger chances1

3.25Expected goals0.90

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	10–5	4–0	1–0	0.9–0.2
2nd	12–4	3–1	1–1	1.1–0.3
3rd	13–5	6–1	2–0	1.3–0.4

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
BAK	3	10:54 of the 3rd	9:06	9:06	+0.013 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Olivier Rodrigue

Shots faced: 35
Saves: 31
Allowed: 4
xGA: 3.25
GSAx: -0.75

Chris Driedger

Shots faced: 14
Saves: 13
Allowed: 1
xGA: 0.90
GSAx: -0.10

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 4:24Penalty
1st 9:24Shane Wright (1–0)medium · wrist · 11 ft · beat Olivier Rodrigue
1st 14:32Penalty
2nd 3:05Cam Dineen (1–1)low · wrist · 51 ft · beat Chris Driedger
2nd 6:34Penalty
2nd 7:25Marian Studenic (2–1)4v5 · high · wrist · 14 ft · beat Olivier Rodrigue
2nd 13:00Penalty
2nd 14:19Logan Morrison (3–1)5v4 · medium · wrist · 18 ft · beat Olivier Rodrigue
2nd 16:22Penalty
2nd 18:54Penalty
3rd 9:05Penalty
3rd 10:54Logan Morrison (4–1)5v4 · medium · wrist · 39 ft · beat Olivier Rodrigue
3rd 13:33Penalty