AHLDashboard
‹ Saturday, March 2

Texas Stars at Manitoba Moose

Canada Life Centre · Winnipeg, MB

Texas Stars
3:7
Final
Manitoba Moose

The sheet

TEXMBSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
38%62%
xG
2.23.0
High danger
35
Chances
78
Shots
2534

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

0123P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
MB above the lineTEX belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% MB.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

25Shots on goal34
7Scoring chances8
3High-danger chances5
2.17Expected goals3.03

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st6–162–41–20.6–1.4
2nd8–81–20–10.6–0.6
3rd11–104–22–21.0–1.0

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

TEX−10:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
TEX116:56 of the 3rd3:043:04+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Matthew Murray
Shots faced
34
Saves
27
Allowed
7
xGA
3.03
GSAx
-3.97
Thomas Milic
Shots faced
25
Saves
22
Allowed
3
xGA
2.17
GSAx
-0.83

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 3:13Kristian Reichel (0–1)low · 46 ft · beat Matthew Murray
  • 1st 4:18Mavrik Bourque (1–1)high · 11 ft · beat Thomas Milic
  • 1st 6:01Penalty
  • 1st 15:01Penalty
  • 1st 16:50Kyle Capobianco (1–2)5v4 · low · 64 ft · beat Matthew Murray
  • 2nd 3:06Penalty
  • 2nd 10:58Penalty
  • 2nd 17:30Penalty
  • 2nd 17:30Henri Nikkanen (1–3)high · 9 ft · beat Matthew Murray
  • 2nd 18:54Penalty
  • 3rd 5:53Mark Rassell (2–3)medium · 15 ft · beat Thomas Milic
  • 3rd 7:13Mark Rassell (3–3)grade A · rebound · 21 ft · beat Thomas Milic
  • 3rd 7:59Parker Ford (3–4)grade A · rebound · 22 ft · beat Matthew Murray
  • 3rd 17:12Kristian Reichel (3–5)empty net · low · 40 ft · beat Matthew Murray
  • 3rd 17:51Brad Lambert (3–6)empty net · low · 78 ft · beat Matthew Murray
  • 3rd 19:29Nikita Chibrikov (3–7)low · 24 ft · beat Matthew Murray