Syracuse Crunch at Toronto Marlies

Coca-Cola Coliseum · Toronto, ON

Syracuse Crunch

4:2

Final

Toronto Marlies

The sheet

SYRTORSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

47%53%

xG: 2.32.7
High danger: 44
Chances: 89
Shots: 2024

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

TOR above the lineSYR belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% TOR.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

20Shots on goal24

8Scoring chances9

4High-danger chances4

2.27Expected goals2.69

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	8–12	3–4	2–2	1.2–1.4
2nd	5–5	1–2	1–0	0.4–0.4
3rd	7–7	4–3	1–2	0.7–0.9

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
TOR	2	12:08 of the 3rd	7:52	5:57	+0.028 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Matt Tomkins

Shots faced: 24
Saves: 22
Allowed: 2
xGA: 2.69
GSAx: +0.69

Luke Cavallin

Shots faced: 20
Saves: 16
Allowed: 4
xGA: 2.27
GSAx: -1.73

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 0:51Gage Goncalves (1–0)medium · 18 ft · beat Luke Cavallin
1st 7:00Penalty
1st 8:27Gabriel Fortier (2–0)5v4 · grade A · rebound · 24 ft · beat Luke Cavallin
1st 10:31Kyle Clifford (2–1)low · 42 ft · beat Matt Tomkins
1st 11:46Penalty
1st 19:05Penalty
1st 19:36Penalty
1st 20:00Penalty
2nd 6:15Penalty
2nd 14:51Penalty
2nd 14:51Penalty
2nd 14:51Penalty
2nd 16:50Penalty
3rd 0:24Gabriel Dumont (3–1)high · 9 ft · beat Luke Cavallin
3rd 6:14Penalty
3rd 15:01Joseph Blandisi (3–2)grade A · rebound · 12 ft · beat Matt Tomkins
3rd 19:10Cole Koepke (4–2)empty net · low · 66 ft · beat Luke Cavallin