Charlotte Checkers at Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins

Mohegan Sun Arena at Casey Plaza · Wilkes-Barre, PA

Charlotte Checkers

4:2

Final

Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins

The sheet

CLTWBSSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

30%70%

xG: 2.53.0
High danger: 15
Chances: 1414
Shots: 3232

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

WBS above the lineCLT belowDots are goals. Pre-game 52% WBS.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

32Shots on goal32

14Scoring chances14

1High-danger chances5

2.54Expected goals2.96

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	12–11	6–6	1–1	1.0–1.0
2nd	7–7	3–3	0–2	0.6–0.7
3rd	13–14	5–5	0–2	0.9–1.3

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
WBS	1	17:02 of the 3rd	2:58	2:58	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Spencer Knight

Shots faced: 32
Saves: 30
Allowed: 2
xGA: 2.96
GSAx: +0.96

Magnus Hellberg

Shots faced: 32
Saves: 28
Allowed: 4
xGA: 2.54
GSAx: -1.46

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 5:19Vinnie Hinostroza (0–1)high · 10 ft · beat Spencer Knight
1st 8:06Penalty
1st 12:35Penalty
1st 12:55Austin Rueschhoff (0–2)5v4 · medium · 44 ft · beat Spencer Knight
1st 13:08Penalty
1st 19:21Penalty
2nd 1:40Penalty
2nd 8:14Zac Dalpe (1–2)medium · 19 ft · beat Magnus Hellberg
2nd 16:40Penalty
3rd 7:07Uvis Balinskis (2–2)low · rebound · 63 ft · beat Magnus Hellberg
3rd 13:59Penalty
3rd 17:02Michael Benning (3–2)medium · 19 ft · beat Magnus Hellberg
3rd 19:39Mackie Samoskevich (4–2)empty net · low · 34 ft · beat Magnus Hellberg