AHLDashboard
‹ Saturday, March 2

Rockford IceHogs at Grand Rapids Griffins

Van Andel Arena · Grand Rapids, MI

Rockford IceHogs
5:4
Final / OT
Grand Rapids Griffins

The sheet

RFDGRSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
64%36%
xG
3.22.1
High danger
64
Chances
127
Shots
2624

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

0123P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
GR above the lineRFD belowDots are goals. Pre-game 55% GR.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

26Shots on goal24
12Scoring chances7
6High-danger chances4
3.18Expected goals2.15

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st4–121–20–10.2–0.6
2nd9–55–23–21.2–0.6
3rd9–65–23–11.6–0.8
OT4–11–10–00.3–0.1

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

GR0:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
GR116:56 of the 3rd3:040:23+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Sebastian Cossa
Shots faced
26
Saves
21
Allowed
5
xGA
3.18
GSAx
-1.82
Jaxson Stauber
Shots faced
24
Saves
20
Allowed
4
xGA
2.14
GSAx
-1.86

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 11:29Penalty
  • 1st 14:25Penalty
  • 1st 15:17Carter Mazur (0–1)5v4 · medium · 28 ft · beat Jaxson Stauber
  • 1st 15:49Penalty
  • 1st 18:54Matt Luff (0–2)high · wrist · 21 ft · beat Jaxson Stauber
  • 2nd 5:50Marco Kasper (0–3)high · tip · 6 ft · beat Jaxson Stauber
  • 2nd 10:06Penalty
  • 2nd 10:06Penalty
  • 2nd 10:52Penalty
  • 2nd 11:57Cole Guttman (1–3)5v4 · grade A · wrist · 7 ft · beat Sebastian Cossa
  • 2nd 13:12Penalty
  • 2nd 14:00Penalty
  • 2nd 14:00Penalty
  • 2nd 14:00Penalty
  • 2nd 14:00Penalty
  • 2nd 17:49Penalty
  • 2nd 18:08Penalty
  • 2nd 19:57Penalty
  • 3rd 2:07Penalty
  • 3rd 4:20Penalty
  • 3rd 11:35Brett Seney (2–3)medium · wrist · 28 ft · beat Sebastian Cossa
  • 3rd 12:17Jackson Cates (3–3)grade A · rebound · 7 ft · beat Sebastian Cossa
  • 3rd 13:03Cole Guttman (4–3)high · 9 ft · beat Sebastian Cossa
  • 3rd 15:18Penalty
  • 3rd 17:19Joel L’Esperance (4–4)grade A · wrist · rebound · 6 ft · beat Jaxson Stauber
  • OT 3:46Ethan Del Mastro (5–4)medium · wrist · 13 ft · beat Sebastian Cossa