AHLDashboard
‹ Saturday, March 2

Rochester Americans at Belleville Senators

CAA Arena · Belleville, ON

Rochester Americans
1:4
Final
Belleville Senators

The sheet

ROCBELSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
13%87%
xG
1.83.3
High danger
04
Chances
313
Shots
2338

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

0123P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
BEL above the lineROC belowDots are goals. Pre-game 52% BEL.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

23Shots on goal38
3Scoring chances13
0High-danger chances4
1.76Expected goals3.25

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st6–160–40–10.4–1.2
2nd7–130–60–10.5–1.3
3rd10–93–30–20.9–0.8

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

ROC−3−20:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
ROC34:57 of the 3rd15:0312:17+0.020 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Devon Levi
Shots faced
38
Saves
34
Allowed
4
xGA
3.25
GSAx
-0.75
Kevin Mandolese
Shots faced
23
Saves
22
Allowed
1
xGA
1.76
GSAx
+0.76

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 2:18Penalty
  • 1st 3:06Garrett Pilon (0–1)5v4 · medium · 40 ft · beat Devon Levi
  • 1st 6:15Penalty
  • 1st 11:05Penalty
  • 1st 13:11Penalty
  • 1st 19:20Penalty
  • 1st 19:20Penalty
  • 2nd 8:51Penalty
  • 2nd 8:51Penalty
  • 2nd 8:51Penalty
  • 2nd 9:46Rourke Chartier (0–2)5v4 · medium · 25 ft · beat Devon Levi
  • 2nd 13:11Penalty
  • 2nd 16:00Penalty
  • 2nd 16:00Penalty
  • 2nd 17:30Penalty
  • 2nd 19:47Penalty
  • 3rd 4:57Cole Reinhardt (0–3)high · 8 ft · beat Devon Levi
  • 3rd 9:22Zach Metsa (1–3)low · 24 ft · beat Kevin Mandolese
  • 3rd 18:22Rourke Chartier (1–4)empty net · low · 114 ft · beat Devon Levi