AHLDashboard
‹ Saturday, March 2

Abbotsford Canucks at Bakersfield Condors

Mechanics Bank Arena · Bakersfield, CA

Abbotsford Canucks
4:2
Final
Bakersfield Condors

The sheet

ABBBAKSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
45%55%
xG
2.82.5
High danger
35
Chances
118
Shots
3035

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

0123P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
BAK above the lineABB belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% BAK.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

30Shots on goal35
11Scoring chances8
3High-danger chances5
2.80Expected goals2.54

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st12–93–32–10.9–0.9
2nd14–127–51–41.6–1.2
3rd4–141–00–00.3–0.5

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

BAK−20:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
BAK212:08 of the 3rd7:527:52+0.028 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Nikita Tolopilo
Shots faced
35
Saves
33
Allowed
2
xGA
2.54
GSAx
+0.54
Jack Campbell
Shots faced
30
Saves
26
Allowed
4
xGA
2.80
GSAx
-1.20

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 4:39Penalty
  • 1st 14:43Penalty
  • 1st 15:33Drake Caggiula (0–1)5v4 · high · tip · 12 ft · beat Nikita Tolopilo
  • 1st 19:07Penalty
  • 2nd 2:37Penalty
  • 2nd 2:59Sheldon Dries (1–1)5v4 · grade A · wrist · rebound · 10 ft · beat Jack Campbell
  • 2nd 4:10Penalty
  • 2nd 7:46Greg McKegg (1–2)high · backhand · 6 ft · beat Nikita Tolopilo
  • 2nd 9:31Penalty
  • 2nd 13:10Linus Karlsson (2–2)5v4 · medium · wrist · 13 ft · beat Jack Campbell
  • 2nd 17:39Nick Cicek (3–2)low · wrist · 47 ft · beat Jack Campbell
  • 2nd 18:10Chad Nychuk (4–2)low · wrist · 32 ft · beat Jack Campbell